Note: The following are excerpts of a a lecture by LIU Chunrong, PhD, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, at Fudan University. Dr. Chunrong is a young man whol tried his best to go over an elaborate presentation that was followed by an open Q&A session (most unusual!) in which he did his best to answer all questions with integrity. He clearly demonstrated the now deeply routed belief within the Chinese people we met that an “harmonious socialist society” is within reach for them. He defined the key elements of that society as being: democracy, rule of law, equity, justice, sincerity, amity and vitality. In spite of his seemingly open criticism of much of China’s weaknesses, he led us to believe that they will eventually succeed in giving full scope to people’s talent and creativity, enable all their people to share the social wealth and forge an even closer relations between the people and the government. He also supported the belief that this will result in lasting stability and unity in China and further stressed the party line that the actions called for accomplish this are as follows:
1. Sustainable, rapid,and coordinated economic growth
2. Socialist democracy
3. Law enforcement
4. Ideological and ethical building
5. Social equity and justice
6. Fine-tuned social management systems, and
7. Strong enviromental protection
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Harmony = A Democratic and Prosperous Society
We Ask: Is China a “Society of Harmony”?
– It’s on red banners
– It’s on billboards
– It’s the name of the new high-speed trains
– But, It is not so much a reality!
The bright side:
• 2008 witnesses the 30th anniversary of launching reform and open-door policy.
• Annual GDP Growth Rate: 9.7%
• Annual Trade Growth Rate: 17.2%
• More than 220 million people were lifted out of poverty
• China’s Current Status in the World
– GDP, the Forth in the world
– Trade, the Third in the world
– FDI, the Second in the world
– Foreign Reserves, the first in the world!
The dark side:
• Low per capita
– The proud record of economic growth will be reduced amazingly once divided by its 1.3 billion population
– Still over 26 million people living in absolute poverty
• High income & regional disparity
– the bottom of 20% of income earners earns a mere 7.4% of the total income; while the top 20% take home 50 %.
– Gini coefficient: 0.45-0.53, one of the highest levels in Asia
• Cost of growth
– Pollutant emission per unit of GDP over 12 times higher than developed countries
– China’s energy use per unit of GDP is 7 times higher than Japan’s, 6 times higher than America’s and 2.8 times higher than India’s
– Environmental degradation
• More alarming…
– Social discontent, instability
– official incompetence, corruption
– Legitimacy undermined
Consider These Facts:
Environmental degradation
• 16 of the 20 most air-polluted cities globally
• ¼ people drink polluted water; 1/3 urban population breathe polluted air, 70% of cancer deaths are pollution-related
• In 2004, only 2 (7.5%) of the 27 lakes can be classified as good water quality. 5 are fair (18.5%), 4 are bad (14.8%), 6 are worse (22.2%), 10 are the worst (37%)
• In 2004, 298 cities suffered from Acid Rain, accounts for 56.5% of cities in survey.
• Acid Rain affects 1/3 of national area (Green Peace, 2007)
A growing active society
• The first surge of unrest, in 1998
– correlates with the firing of tens of millions of state workers, mandatory planting of low-profit grain, and the bursting of a real estate and financial bubble.
• The second surge of unrest, in 2004,
– reflects accelerated encroachment of urban construction on rural land.
• Recent protest activities
– broader in scope, larger in average size, greater in frequency, and more brash
• China has been predicted by some western observers to go into collapse in the aftermath of Tiananmen crisis, the Soviet Union disintegration, the death of Deng, Asian Financial Crisis, Falungong, and more recently the outbreak of SARS.
– But all these forecasts turned out to be wrong
– China survives and moves on.
– Now people talk about China rise/threat.
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1 comment:
Clarisse,
Your insight is amazing. I too have wondered how long their growth will continue unbridled. The only things at this point that appear to be serious enough to take a toll on their global economic position are the environmental disasters current and future and the resulting health/medical issues for a large swath of the population. This is a country whose management has never cared for the individual only for the State. If enough individuals are affected to reduce production dramatically or there is an environmental melt down perhaps there will be an economic effect.
I hear rumbles from US apparel companies that doing business there is no longer cheap and is indeed suspect in some cases. They are moving their new production elsewhere.
Today 2/22 we had our first winter storm. Between midnight and noon today we've had about 8 inches of snow. I love it. Driving takes patience. My driveway, being gravel, has been plowed recklessly as usual but the road is useable. The entire Sherwood Mill Pond and the LI Sound are gray and serene and the snow is pristine. But rain is falling that may end up as ice if it gets colder tonight.
I asked guests out from NY for lunch and the afternoon tomorrow, Saturday. So far one couple has backed out. I expect the other one to also cancel.
I've got two graduate seminars to teach in March, then implant surgery so April and springtime can't come soon enough.
Fondly,
Jeanne
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